The fear around this Coronavirus / COVID19 is a great showcase of how simple it is to influence the masses. From a feeling of general satisfaction, the world has lowered itself into panic. People stash 3 years worth of toilet paper supply as they expect the world as we know it to come to an end.
A new, novel, virus every year
Every few years, a new virus comes by. A decade ago we had the Swine Flu, H1N1. It killed over a half million people world-wide, but nowhere near the panic that is taking place now. There was the Zika virus, there was Ebola, and a dozen other diseases that were supposed to doom humanity.
How much can you disbelief China?
The death count for the novel coronavirus are as of this Friday the 13th set at less than 5000. Around the world. After 3 months of panic less than 5000 people have died. Admittedly, that means we have to believe the Chinese government, but how likely are they to effectively hide these deaths if reality were so far off? Everyone has internet and a mobile phone, do we expect that the real death count in China has been half a million? Wouldn’t we have seen it spread to other countries sooner in that case?
How many deaths do we expect from the coronavirus?
How many people do you think die daily around the world? It’s 150.000. Per day. How will this virus ever reach those numbers?
Even if you think this virus is a ‘special’ flu, it’s still a flu. And flu season ends in April to May. This means we have about 1 or 2 months to go. Do we expect the death count in that time to go from 5.000 to 500.000? That would make it equal to the Swine Flu. Do we expect it to go to 5.000.000? To 50.000.000? Half a billion? Five billion? Which of these scenarios requires you to stash toilet paper?
Media and government has co-opted a man-made panic similar to South Park’s Man-Bear-Pig. Do you know what you should really fear? How easy it was to convince millions of people that government should be able to shut down the entire country over a flu epidemic, going so far as people requesting the government to enforce house arrest for those in ‘risk areas’.